01.12.25 - 05.12.25
Results of the previous week
| Bitcoin +7.25% | NG +4.04% | TF +2.44% |
VIX -5.73% | SOYBEAN -2.47% | USDCAD -1.28% |
Last week, US indices showed moderate growth. Anticipation of the Fed's changes to its monetary policy is a key support factor. According to data from the CME Group, 87% of analysts surveyed project a 0.25% interest rate cut.
In the forex market, the US dollar has mostly declined, and negative macroeconomic data from the US (a drop in new jobs from ADP and a decline in the services PMI) increased expectations of the Federal Reserve making a rate cut at its December meeting. That was the main source of pressure on the dollar.
Brent crude oil prices are ending the week without big changes. The energy resource is receiving support from OPEC+'s decision to continue its suspension on increasing production in Q1 2026. Meanwhile, Fitch Ratings lowered its oil price forecasts for 2026 and 2027 in its baseline scenario due to expectations of excess supply in the global market. This prevents prices from rising higher.
Key events of the current week
| The US. Inflation rate USD/JPY | DATE 10.12 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
Donald Trump's trade policy is encouraging inflation. Global analysts expect inflation to rise in the reporting period. On the one hand, this is a factor that should lead the Federal Reserve to refrain from cutting rates. On the other hand, US regulators have repeatedly stated that the current increase in inflation is temporary. As a result, rising inflation in the reporting period won't change expectations about the monetary policy at the Federal Reserve, which intends to cut its key rate in December. That's unfavourable for the dollar.The USD/JPY pair could continue to decline towards 153.00. | |||||
| US Fed rates decision XAU/USD | DATE 10.12 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
The latest US labour market numbers were mixed. On the one hand, the ADP National Employment Report saw a sharp drop in new jobs. On the other hand, weekly unemployment claims dropped to a three-year low. Inflation in the US is rising slightly, which US Federal Reserve officials consider a short-term phenomenon. Altogether, this means that the Fed will most likely meet global analysts' expectations at the current meeting and cut the interest rate to 3.75%. This move to ease monetary policy is unfavourable for the dollar, but good news for assets denominated in it, such as gold. In this context, XAU/USD could rise to 4260.00. | |||||
| The UK. GDP growth rate GBP/USD | DATE 12.12 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
The UK's economy is showing weak growth. High energy prices, changes in supply chains and harsh US sanctions continue to put it under pressure. Global analysts expect GDP to remain flat for the month, i.e., growth rates will remain zero. This result is unlikely to change expectations for the Bank of England's key interest rate, but the lack of a recession is good news for the economy. In light of the weakening dollar, this is good news for the pound. Against this backdrop, GBP/USD could rise to 1.3435. | |||||
